Renesas forecasts 29% rise in Q4 non-GAAP revenue; shares close 4.6% lower in Tokyo

Renesas Electronics expects fourth-quarter 2026 non-GAAP revenue of JPY 454.0bn, plus or minus JPY 7.5bn, which at the midpoint is 29.4% more than a year earlier, according to its third-quarter presentation of 29 October 2026. That follows a July-September quarter in which non-GAAP revenue rose 30.2% year on year to JPY 435.2bn, 1.2% above the midpoint of the JPY 430.0bn forecast the Tokyo-based chipmaker issued on 31 July. Excluding currency and one-time effects, Renesas put third-quarter growth at 22.3% and the fourth-quarter forecast at 24.6%.

The non-GAAP gross margin was 59.4% in the third quarter, against 57.5% forecast and 57.6% a year earlier, and Renesas credited the gap to its forecast to the weaker yen, a better product mix and lower manufacturing costs. The non-GAAP operating margin was 34.6%, against 32.5% forecast and 30.9% a year earlier. For the fourth quarter, Renesas forecasts a non-GAAP gross margin of 58.0% and an operating margin of 32.0%, 2.6 percentage points lower than in the third quarter, at an assumed JPY 157 to the US dollar. Non-GAAP profit attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 125.0bn, against JPY 88.2bn a year earlier.

Industrial/Infrastructure/IoT revenue rose 46.4% year on year to JPY 243.8bn in the third quarter, or 36.5% excluding currency and one-time effects, while Automotive revenue grew 19.3% to JPY 189.5bn, or 13.3% on that basis, according to the presentation. The industrial segment's operating margin rose 4.3 percentage points from the second quarter to 36.2%; Automotive's fell 1.5 percentage points to 32.9%. For the whole of 2026, Renesas forecasts non-GAAP revenue of JPY 1,659.3bn to JPY 1,674.3bn, up 25.8% to 27.0% on 2025, according to its earnings report. Its presentation shows in-house inventory rising again in the fourth quarter, partly to prepare for demand growth from the first quarter of 2027, and distributor inventory also increasing as automotive stock is replenished.

Renesas shares closed the regular Tokyo session at JPY 2,956.5 at 15:30 JST (07:30 CET) on 29 October 2026, down JPY 143.5, or 4.63%, from the previous close of JPY 3,100.0, according to Kabutan. The results came out at 09:00 JST (01:00 CET), as trading opened. The stock opened at JPY 3,056.0 and fell as low as JPY 2,813.5 at 12:30 JST (04:30 CET), 9.2% below the previous close by Polstob's calculation. Investing.com linked the drop to what it described as management's guidance that operating expenses would stay above JPY 100bn a quarter on average, which it said weighed on the fourth-quarter profit outlook, and to slow quarter-on-quarter growth in Automotive revenue.