US growth speeds up to a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, BEA estimate shows

Real gross domestic product rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, from July to September, after 2.2% in April to June, according to the advance estimate the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published at 8:30 a.m. EDT (13:30 CET) on 29 October 2026. At a quarterly rate the increase was 0.8%. BEA said higher investment, consumer spending and government spending drove the gain, partly offset by lower exports, while imports, which are subtracted when GDP is calculated, rose. Current-dollar GDP grew at a 5.6% annual rate.

Compared with the second quarter, the pickup mainly reflected faster investment growth and a turn higher in government spending, partly offset by a turn lower in exports, BEA said. Investment rose mainly on private inventories and equipment; within equipment, information processing equipment, mainly computers and peripherals, led the gain. Consumer spending grew in services, led by health care and by food services and accommodations, and in goods, where other nondurable goods, chiefly prescription drugs, led. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which BEA defines as consumer spending plus gross private fixed investment, grew at a 4.9% rate after 4.6%.

Federal spending, led by nondefense consumption, more than accounted for the rise in government spending, and BEA said the pattern mainly reflected oil sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. BEA said the sales have no direct effect on GDP, because the oil sold appears as an increase in other GDP components. Exports fell mainly on goods, led by petroleum and related products.

From the second to the third quarter, the PCE price index rose at a 2.1% annual rate, after 5.0% in the previous quarter, and at 2.5% excluding food and energy, after 3.3%. BEA's September personal income and outlays release, published at the same time, showed the PCE price index up 0.5% from August and 3.6% from September 2025; excluding food and energy it rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year. Personal income rose 0.2%, or $54.5bn, and current-dollar consumer spending 0.5%, or $113.1bn. After adjusting for prices, spending rose by less than 0.1%, and real disposable personal income fell 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.8%.