Euro-area inflation rose to 3.8% in September 2026 from 3.2% in August, with energy prices up 18.9% on the year, according to Eurostat. The European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey, published on 23 October 2026, showed median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rising to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Perceived inflation over the past 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%.
| Measure | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Perceived inflation, past 12 months | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Expected inflation, next 12 months | 3.0% | 3.1% |
| Expected inflation, 3 years ahead | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Expected inflation, 5 years ahead | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| Expected nominal income growth | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Expected nominal spending growth | 3.6% | 3.7% |
| Expected economic growth | -1.2% | -1.5% |
| Expected unemployment rate in 12 months | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| Expected home price growth | 3.4% | 3.5% |
Source: European Central Bank, Consumer Expectations Survey, September 2026.
Lower-income households expect more strain
Households in the bottom income quintile expect unemployment of 13.6% in 12 months, against 9.7% for the top quintile, and mortgage rates of 5.7% against 4.4%. Across all households, the expected mortgage rate in 12 months was unchanged at 4.9%. Lower-income households also report higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average. Uncertainty about 12-month inflation rose slightly and stays above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the ECB said.
Consumers expect the economy to shrink 1.5% over the next 12 months, more pessimistic than the -1.2% expected in August. They put unemployment in a year at 11.3%, up from 11.0%. The ECB said this remains only slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.6%, suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.
- Euro-area HICP inflation, September 20263.8 %
- Energy inflation, September 202618.9 %
- Expected mortgage rate in 12 months4.9 %
- Perceived current unemployment rate10.6 %
The survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries, with fieldwork from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. October results are due on 27 November 2026, and Eurostat's October flash inflation estimate is scheduled for 4 November 2026.
- European Central Bank, ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results - September 2026, 23 Oct 2026, 02:00 CEST
- Eurostat, Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, 16 Oct 2026, 02:00 CEST