The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate at around 1.25 percent on 30 October 2026 but changed its assessment of underlying inflation. Underlying consumer price inflation is now at a level "generally consistent" with the 2 percent price stability target and should stay near it, the bank said in the summary of its October Outlook Report. In its 18 September statement, it had described underlying inflation as approaching 2 percent.
- Overnight call rate guideline · 30 October 2026around 1.25 % Held; Takata proposed 1.5%
- Policy rate vote · 30 October 20268-1 ETF pace change was unanimous
- ETF sales pace (book value) · Decided 30 October 2026about 860 ¥bn a year Was about ¥330bn; from January 2027
- Years to complete ETF sales · BoJ estimate, 30 October 2026about 43 Was about 112
- FY2027 CPI less fresh food, median · Forecast issued 30 October 20262.6 % 2.4% in July 2026 forecasts
The rate decision passed 8-1, according to the statement on monetary policy. Hajime Takata proposed around 1.5 percent, judging that with underlying inflation at the target, policy had entered a new phase calling for a faster move toward the neutral rate. Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, who opposed September's rise to 1.25 percent, backed the hold. Risks to prices are skewed to the upside, the Outlook Report says, and the bank will keep raising the policy rate in response to the economy, prices and financial conditions.
| Items | Pace set September 2025 | Pace from January 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| ETF sales a year (book value) | About ¥330bn | About ¥860bn |
| Share of market trading value | About 0.05% | About 0.1% |
| Years to complete sales | About 112 | About 43 |
The BoJ has sold ETFs since January 2026 and said in its statement that the sales had gone smoothly while stock market trading value grew. The board voted unanimously to raise the yen pace about 2.6 times, by Polstob's calculation, while the share of trading value doubles. At the market-to-book ratio of ETFs sold so far, the new pace equals about ¥2,460bn a year at market value, according to the bank's reference sheet. J-REIT sales stay at about ¥5bn a year, the statement says.
| Fiscal year | Real GDP (%) | CPI less fresh food (%) | Same CPI, July (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 2027 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 2028 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Source: BoJ Outlook Report, October 2026, Forecasts issued 30 October 2026.
Governor Kazuo Ueda stopped short of saying the job was done. "Our goal is to sustainably and stably achieve our price target. In that sense, we haven't reached our goal yet," he told reporters, according to a Reuters translation published by CNA. On further rises, he said in the same translation: "We can't decide in advance how many months we will spend each time before raising rates."
The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.12% at 63,290.11 at the end of Tokyo trading on 30 October, Kyodo News reported, linking the fall to worries over some tech companies' earnings and calling the reaction to the ETF decision muted. The 10-year JGB yield ended at 2.770%, down 0.065 percentage point, and the dollar was at ¥157.55-56 at 5 p.m. Tokyo time (09:00 CET), according to the same report.
- Bank of Japan, Statement on Monetary Policy, 30 Oct 2026, 04:02 CET
- Bank of Japan, Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2026), The Bank's View, 30 Oct 2026, 04:02 CET
- Bank of Japan, (Reference) Decisions regarding a Change in the Pace of Sales of ETFs (October 2026), 30 Oct 2026, 01:00 CET
- Reuters via CNA, BOJ Governor Ueda's comments at news conference, 30 Oct 2026, 07:55 CET
- Kyodo News via The Mainichi, Nikkei stock index falls sharply with muted reaction to BOJ's ETF move, 30 Oct 2026, 01:00 CET